Sunday, November 25, 2012

New York Times - Fivethirtyeight Blog - Election Forecasts

Mitt Romney possesses usually have difficulty attracting complete Electoral College hand. Even throughout his finest span involving polling, inside week and also not one but two following the first presidential question inside Denver, he / she by no means quite pulled in advance while in the polling averages inside Ohio and various states that will make it possible for your ex boyfriend to safe and sound 270 electoral votes.

But essentially the most latest couple of polls recommend a further issue with regard to Mr. Romney, whose push inside polls stalled released within mid-October. Instead, it really is President Obama who's making gains.

Nov. 4: Did Hurricane Sandy Blow Romney Off Course? NATE SILVER NATE SILVER In Virginia, It s Tradition Versus Change MICAH COHEN Nov. 3: Romney s Reason for you to Play with regard to Pennsylvania NATE SILVER Some with the regularity in these kind of results may perhaps reflect a tendency involving polls to be able to converge or herd surrounding the polling average near Election Day. This might arise due to the fact quite a few polling agencies transform their turnout designs or other elements belonging to the polls in order not to ever create outliers some sort of dubious training when the goal is to provide goal require to the race. Follow This Blog

The probability in which President Obama will get your provided variety of Electoral College votes.

Tipping Point States

The chance of which a state offers the actual decisive electoral vote.

Return on Investment Index

The distant relative probability that anyone voter might determine that Electoral College winner.

Scenario Analysis

How often the pursuing predicaments happened throughout recurrent simulated elections.

Electoral Vote Distribution

The chance this President Obama receives a new provided quantity of Electoral College votes.

Tipping Point States

The odds which a express supplies your definitive electoral vote.

Return about Investment Index

The general chances in which a person voter would likely figure out the particular Electoral College winner.

Scenario Analysis

How often the following predicaments occurred during recurring simulated elections.

Senate Seat Distribution

The probability that will the Republican or Democratic party equipment the actual senate by way of a assigned variety of seats.

Tipping Point States

The probability that a condition presents the Senate harley seat which leads that will a majority.

Democratic Bang to the Buck

The comparative total than a $2,500 contribution to the senate candidate would increase the Democratic Party's odds connected with earning this seat.

Republican Bang for any Buck

The distant relative total that your $2,500 info on the senate pick could increase the Republican Party's chances regarding receiving the seat.

State-by-State Projections

Detailed polling examination along with projections for that statewide presidential vote, in addition to recent polls wherever available.

State-by-State Projections

Detailed polling analysis as well as projections intended for the particular statewide presidential vote, as well as latest polls wherever available.

The Election 2012 App

A one-stop vacation spot for that most current political news from The Times along with other best sources. Plus opinion, polls, campaign data and video.

Featured Posts

2012 The New York Times Company

Site Feedback

No comments:

Post a Comment